九万里：全球货币政策为何出现明显分化？

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a "Super Central Bank Week" at the end of 2025, with significant divergence in monetary policies among major economies, marking a transition from synchronized monetary control to a new phase characterized by high volatility and low coordination [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - Major economies are adopting three distinct monetary policy approaches: rate cuts, rate hikes, and maintaining current rates [4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [5]. - The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on December 18, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for the year, as it faces high inflation and economic weakness [5]. - The Russian Central Bank lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the fifth consecutive cut since starting its easing cycle, with a total reduction of 500 basis points from a peak of 21% [6]. - Japan's Central Bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, ending nearly 30 years of ultra-loose monetary policy, driven by rising inflation and a depreciating yen [7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The European Central Bank maintained its key rates, reflecting a cautious approach amid fragile economic conditions, with GDP growth expected at 1.4% for the EU and 1.3% for the Eurozone, below the global average of 3.0% [10]. - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady indicates a shift from a rate-cutting cycle to an observation phase, as inflation in the Eurozone stabilized at 2.1% in November [11]. - Other countries like Switzerland, Canada, and Australia also kept their rates unchanged, contributing to a neutral policy stance [12]. Group 3: Global Economic Restructuring - The historical divergence in global monetary policies is reshaping the economic and financial landscape through capital flows and trade interactions [13]. - The shift in capital flows is moving from "chasing high interest" to "stabilizing expectations," with the U.S. and U.K. rate cuts leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of domestic assets [14]. - The depreciation of the dollar due to rate cuts is benefiting export-oriented companies in economies like China and ASEAN, while the yen's appreciation from rate hikes negatively impacts Japanese exporters [17]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The divergence in monetary policies is indicative of a multi-polar and multi-cycle global economy, with predictions of global GDP growth between 2.8% and 3.1% in 2026, highlighting a growing divide between developed and emerging markets [20]. - The potential for increased financial volatility, trade friction, and uneven growth due to rate divergence is expected to become the new normal in the global economy [20].