耐克(NKE.US)深陷四十年来最长熊市 瑞银找到了看涨信号

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock has experienced a historic decline, but recent investments by Apple CEO Tim Cook and UBS's latest survey data suggest that the company may be building a bottom, although a full recovery will take time [1][6]. Group 1: UBS Survey Insights - UBS analyst Jay Sole highlighted that Nike's new CEO Elliott Hill's strategies of "returning to wholesale channels" and "refocusing on athletic attributes" are showing positive results [3]. - The survey indicates an increase in the global consumer perception of Nike products being "easy to find" in stores and online, rebounding to a new high after a decline from 2019 to 2022 [3]. - The percentage of consumers who believe Nike is "suitable for sports" has returned to peak levels seen in 2019 [3]. Group 2: Key Brand Metrics - Nike holds the highest Net Promoter Score (NPS) globally, ranking first in all major regions surveyed (U.S., U.K., Germany, China) and showing an upward trend [4]. - The brand ranks first or second globally in categories such as "high-quality products," "suitable for sports," "prestigious brand," and "innovative brand" [5]. - There is an increase in global consumers' intent to purchase more Nike footwear and apparel in the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Executive Actions and Market Response - Tim Cook invested approximately $2.9 million in Nike, purchasing 50,000 shares at an average price of $58.97, nearly doubling his personal holdings [7]. - This significant insider buying is interpreted as a vote of confidence in Nike's long-term strategy and valuation, leading to a notable rebound in Nike's stock price following the announcement [7]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Despite the positive survey results, UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on Nike, indicating that the recovery process will take longer than market expectations [9]. - UBS sets a target price of $62 based on a projected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.15 for the fiscal year 2028, applying a 29x price-to-earnings ratio [9]. - The survey also revealed a slight decline in brand awareness among the 16-24 age group, suggesting a potential challenge for Nike in maintaining its appeal to younger consumers [9].