白银狂飙，马斯克直言：这不好！

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant price surge, nearing $80 per ounce, driven by severe global supply shortages, which has raised concerns about its impact on industrial development [1][8]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting and major exchange stock levels significantly declining [3]. - By 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [6]. - The primary cause of this supply-demand imbalance is the rigidity of mining supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines typically take over 10 years to develop [6]. Group 2: Industrial Importance of Silver - Silver is not only a precious metal for investment but also a critical raw material for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and medical devices, with industrial demand accounting for 50% to 60% of total demand [5][8]. - The lack of effective substitutes in many applications makes industrial buyers less sensitive to price fluctuations, but they are extremely vulnerable in the face of supply shortages [8]. Group 3: Market Vulnerabilities - There is a significant imbalance between "paper silver" and physical silver, with an estimated ratio of 356:1, meaning each ounce of physical silver corresponds to hundreds of claims in paper trading [7]. - This disconnection heightens market fragility, as even a small number of buyers requesting physical delivery could risk system collapse, contributing to the recent sharp price increases [7].