白银狂飙，马斯克直言：这不好

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are nearing $80 per ounce, driven by a structural deficit, plummeting inventories, and a disconnection between paper trading and physical supply, posing significant challenges to modern industrial chains [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting and major exchange stock levels significantly declining [3]. - By 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [6]. - The primary cause of this supply-demand imbalance is the rigidity of mining supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines typically take over 10 years to develop [6]. Inventory Concerns - Since 2020, COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70%, and London vault stocks have fallen by 40%, with some regions' available silver inventories only able to sustain demand for 30 to 45 days [6]. Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver - There is a significant imbalance between "paper silver" and physical silver, with an estimated ratio of 356:1, meaning each ounce of physical silver corresponds to hundreds of claims in paper trading [7]. - This disconnection heightens market vulnerability, as even a small number of buyers requesting physical delivery could risk system collapse, contributing to the recent sharp price increases [7]. Industrial Demand - Silver is not only a precious metal investment but also a critical raw material for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronic products, and medical devices, with industrial demand accounting for 50% to 60% of total demand [5]. - Industrial buyers are less sensitive to price fluctuations due to a lack of effective substitutes, making them particularly vulnerable in the face of supply shortages [8].