对比互联网泡沫，AI现在走到“1998年”？

Core Viewpoint - The current AI industry development stage is highly comparable to the late "1→N" phase of the internet bubble in 1998, with the AI wave only reaching about one-third of the spatial extent of that period [1][6][10] Market Performance Comparison - Since October 2022, the S&P 500 index has outperformed its fundamentals by approximately 27 percentage points, significantly lower than the 85 percentage points during the peak of the internet bubble [1][10] - The differentiation between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 is only about one-third of the level seen during the internet bubble, indicating that the valuation pressure of the current AI market is not at an extreme level [1][10] Future Market Expectations - The report predicts that the "1→N" phase of the AI wave will conclude around mid-2026, potentially leading to a mild market correction with the S&P 500 possibly retreating to around 6700 points [1][12] - Following this adjustment, the market is expected to enter the "N→N+" phase, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 9600 points by the end of 2027 [1][12] Investment Strategy Insights - The first half of 2026 will be a critical window for investors to adjust their portfolios and optimize AI positions, contrasting with the internet bubble's weak fundamentals [2][12] - The Nasdaq is expected to maintain a stronger earnings support compared to the S&P 500, indicating a more solid fundamental backing for stock prices rather than mere speculative trading [10][12] Historical Context - The internet bubble was characterized by a significant imbalance in the supply and demand for assets, driven by a unique historical context of abundant capital and a perception of long-term resource scarcity in the internet sector [3][5] - The current AI wave is seen as being in a similar phase to the internet bubble, with high revenue growth but also signs of marginal deceleration, particularly in the "1→N" phase [6][8]