金银狂飙！“牛市”刚刚开始？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold and silver prices, attributing it to a profound shift in global financial order and the erosion of trust in the US dollar as a stable asset [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Credibility - The dollar's credibility has been compromised since certain foreign exchange reserves were "frozen" in 2022, leading to a strategic shift where gold has become a core asset rather than a backup [1]. - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold and repatriating it, indicating a long-term asset migration driven by national security concerns and a move towards "de-dollarization" [2]. Group 2: US Fiscal Policy and Federal Reserve Actions - The US government is projected to increase its deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, flooding the market with US debt, which diminishes the value of the dollar [3]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under threat, with its potential shift from controlling inflation to financing fiscal deficits, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Industrial Demand - Global trade uncertainties and tariff wars are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while simultaneously disrupting supply chains, particularly affecting silver, which is crucial for green technologies [4]. - The mismatch between soaring demand for silver in industries and supply chain disruptions has created a narrative of "industrial shortage," driving up silver prices significantly [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest that the rise in gold and silver prices may not be a cyclical peak but rather the beginning of a new, larger cycle driven by long-term structural trends such as "de-dollarization" and geopolitical fragmentation [5]. - The nature of market participation is shifting from speculative buying to a consensus-driven allocation of global funds, indicating a transition from a "slow bull" to a "crazy bull" market [5]. - Silver is gaining recognition for its independent industrial demand, moving beyond its traditional role as a shadow of gold [6].