扎心现实！房价跌穿底裤为啥没人买？怕降价，更怕交钱就烂尾！

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is facing a crisis not primarily due to high inventory or prices, but rather a lack of consumer confidence and negative expectations about future price declines [3][9][10]. Market Conditions - As of November 2025, national real estate development investment is expected to plummet by 10.3% year-on-year, likely falling below 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 40% from the peak in 2021 [3]. - New housing starts have halved, dropping nearly 60% from peak levels, with only 8 out of 70 major cities seeing a month-on-month increase in new home prices, while the rest are experiencing declines [5]. - The second-hand housing market is even worse, with 69 cities seeing price drops, and only Xining showing a slight increase of 0.1% [5]. Consumer Sentiment - Many cities have seen home prices significantly reduced, with some third and fourth-tier cities reverting to 2015 price levels, yet consumer hesitation persists due to fears of further price drops and concerns over unfinished projects [7][10]. - The prevailing sentiment is that even a 30% price reduction may not be enough to stimulate buying, as consumers anticipate even larger discounts [10]. Policy Recommendations - The core issue is not inventory or pricing but rather the lack of consumer willingness to purchase, which can be addressed by lowering purchasing costs, such as reducing down payments and mortgage rates [14][16]. - The government is urged to act as a "last guarantor" by providing financial backing and assurances to prevent project failures and price drops, similar to measures taken during the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S. [19][21]. Future Outlook - The real estate sector is entering a "stock era," focusing on "intrinsic development," where the competition will shift towards ensuring consumer confidence and security in home purchases [22]. - There are signs of policy shifts that could improve market sentiment, indicating that a turnaround in demand is possible if effective measures are implemented [24]. - The current downturn in the real estate market is fundamentally a crisis of confidence, necessitating strong policy interventions to stabilize the market and protect the housing dreams of millions [26].