楼市转折点：从止跌回稳到稳定市场，2026年买房逻辑变了

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the national housing and urban-rural construction work conference has shifted from "continuously promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" to "stabilizing the real estate market," indicating a new starting point for the housing market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Direction - The 2026 focus will be on "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," which is a more defined goal compared to the previous year's emphasis on stabilization [1][3]. - The change in focus is interpreted as a sign that risks in the real estate market are being initially controlled, with a shift from risk prevention to constructing a new model [3][11]. Group 2: Controlling Increment - "Controlling increment" is prioritized, reflecting a significant change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, indicating a transition to a stage dominated by existing stock [3][11]. - Key measures include strict control of new real estate land in cities with excess supply and promoting the utilization of existing land through urban renewal and village reconstruction [3][5]. Group 3: Reducing Inventory - The strategy for "reducing inventory" focuses on addressing the mismatch between excess housing stock and effective housing demand [5]. - One approach is to acquire existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, which alleviates market inventory and eases financial pressure on real estate companies [5]. - Several provinces, including Zhejiang and Sichuan, have issued special bonds for acquiring existing commercial housing, creating replicable practices [5]. Group 4: Optimizing Supply - "Optimizing supply" is seen as a long-term strategy to stabilize the market, focusing on improving supply structure and housing quality to meet diverse housing needs [7]. - The conference emphasized the importance of promoting good standards, designs, materials, construction, and maintenance to enhance housing quality [7]. - The policy direction includes supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and promoting the sale of existing homes to mitigate delivery risks [7][11]. Group 5: Market Trends - The real estate industry has fundamentally changed since 2025, with the completion of tasks related to ensuring housing delivery, reducing the impact of industry adjustments on public welfare [9]. - The conference acknowledged the rising proportion of second-hand housing transactions, with data showing that in 15 provinces, second-hand transactions have surpassed new housing [9][11]. - The market is transitioning from a focus on investment to one centered on residential needs and long-term living quality, reflecting a new normal in housing market dynamics [11].