Core Viewpoint - The company is the largest ready-to-drink beverage enterprise globally, establishing a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market through its end-to-end supply chain and extensive store network of 53,000 locations. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 33.55 billion, 40.30 billion, and 44.39 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.00 billion, 7.40 billion, and 8.41 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [1][2]. Industry and Company Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately 258.5 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased penetration in lower-tier markets and higher consumption frequency [1]. - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under a franchise model. Its brands, including Mixue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, are positioned as affordable options, with prices ranging from 6-8 yuan for tea and 5-10 yuan for coffee [2]. - The company has a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector, supported by a robust supply chain and a network of 53,000 stores as of the first half of 2025 [2]. - Revenue from product and equipment sales is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 32.68 billion, 39.22 billion, and 43.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside improving gross margins [2]. Unique Insights - Contrary to common perceptions that the company's low-price model is easily replicable and growth potential is limited, the company has established cost barriers through its comprehensive supply chain, which enhances the sustainability of its low-price positioning [3]. - The company has built a centralized production system since 2012, creating a closed-loop supply chain that includes procurement, production, storage, and logistics, which significantly reduces costs and ensures product quality [4]. - The company has a mature franchise model that binds the interests of franchisees, with a low initial investment and franchise fees compared to industry averages, which supports sustainable profitability for franchisees [4]. Catalysts for Stock Performance - There remains significant room for expansion in the domestic store network, particularly in lower-tier markets, while also increasing penetration in first- and second-tier cities [5]. - The company has established a presence in Southeast Asia, with 4,733 stores outside mainland China, and is leveraging localized supply chain strategies to reduce logistics costs and enhance delivery efficiency [5]. - The coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, is set to restart its expansion after adjustments, creating a dual-brand strategy that enhances the company's resilience and growth potential in the ready-to-drink beverage market [5].
蜜雪集团(2097.HK)首次覆盖报告：现制茶饮龙头 供应链优势铸就核心竞争力
Ge Long Hui·2025-12-28 05:22