宋清辉：2026年美股上涨概率显著提升，大型科技公司仍是核心配置

Group 1 - The core strategy for investing in US stocks is to focus on "core assets + structural opportunities," with large technology companies remaining a key allocation despite valuation adjustments, as they possess long-term competitive advantages in AI, cloud computing, software subscriptions, and data services [1][5] - Industrial, infrastructure, and defense sectors are recommended for medium-term attention due to stable orders and cash flow, driven by US fiscal spending, geopolitical factors, and manufacturing return trends, making them less sensitive to economic fluctuations [1][5] - The financial sector presents differentiated opportunities; while traditional banks may face margin pressure during a substantial rate cut cycle, investment banks, asset management, and insurance sectors could benefit from increased market activity and rising asset prices, emphasizing the importance of selecting specific targets over broad financial sector bets [5] Group 2 - Corporate earnings are identified as the key driver of stock performance, with expectations for strong earnings growth in US stocks next year, supported by anticipated "tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and tariff cuts," which are expected to accelerate corporate profit growth [3] - The S&P 500's earnings per share is projected to increase by 10% on top of an 11% rise this year, further supporting the upward trend in US stocks, with a forecast for the index to reach 7,300 points by June and potentially 7,700 points by year-end [3] - The consumer sector should be approached with caution; high-end and service-oriented consumption is expected to remain resilient among middle to high-income groups, while low-end discretionary spending requires more careful consideration in investment strategies [5]