黄金白银2026年能冲到多高？

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets have experienced significant price increases, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $79.3 per ounce, both reaching historical highs as uncertainties dissipate [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 72.69%, approaching the second-highest historical record from 1974, while silver's annual increase stands at 173.99%, significantly surpassing the 83.61% rise in 2010 [2][3]. - The silver market is expected to set a new historical record for annual growth in 2025, with a market dynamic characterized by gold leading and silver experiencing explosive growth [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Movements - Investment demand has overtaken central bank purchases as the primary driver of gold prices, while structural squeezes in the silver market, including inventory issues and strong industrial demand, have contributed to rising prices [3]. - A decline of approximately 10% in the U.S. dollar index, alongside the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, has weakened dollar credibility, further supporting gold and silver prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect gold and silver to maintain their strong performance, although they anticipate that the rate of increase will not match the extraordinary growth seen in 2025 [6][7]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is viewed as optimistic, with expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global liquidity environment remaining loose, which may influence the performance of risk assets and the appeal of gold as a safe haven [6][7].