80%靠进口！中国为何宁买美国转基因大豆，也不买邻国俄罗斯豆？

Core Viewpoint - China's soybean imports in 2024 are projected to reach 105 million tons, costing over 370 billion yuan, primarily sourced from Brazil and the United States, while domestic production from Russia remains minimal. This situation reflects a complex "land compensation war" that impacts the livelihoods of 1.4 billion people and the nation's fate [1]. Group 1: Land and Resource Allocation - To meet domestic soybean consumption, China would require 70 to 90 million acres of farmland, which poses a significant challenge given the country's 180 million acres of arable land [3]. - Importing 100 million tons of soybeans essentially means "renting" land and water resources from the global market [4]. - The only regions capable of supplying such vast quantities of soybeans are the agricultural plains of North and South America, specifically the United States and Brazil [5]. Group 2: Production Capacity Comparison - The United States produces 120 million tons of soybeans annually, while Brazil's production stands at 150 million tons, making them the dominant players in the global soybean market [6]. - In contrast, Russia's Far East region produces only about 6 million tons, which is insufficient to meet China's demands [8][9]. Group 3: Industrial Use and Quality - Approximately 90% of imported soybeans are used for oil extraction and animal feed, rather than direct human consumption [10]. - U.S. genetically modified soybeans have a high oil yield of 20%, while Russian non-GMO soybeans have a lower oil yield of about 17%, making them less suitable for industrial use [11][12]. - The difference in oil yield translates to significant profit margins for processing companies, highlighting the industrial logic behind soybean imports [13][14]. Group 4: Logistics and Infrastructure - Russia's logistical challenges, including poor infrastructure and high transportation costs, make it less competitive compared to U.S. soybeans, which benefit from efficient transport systems [16][18]. - The U.S. has a well-established financial and logistical framework for soybean trade, making it a more reliable supplier compared to Russia [19]. Group 5: Historical Context and Strategic Shifts - A significant crisis in 2004, where Chinese companies faced massive losses due to sudden price fluctuations in the soybean market, led to a strategic shift in China's approach to soybean imports [22][28]. - In response, China has diversified its sources, significantly increasing imports from Brazil, which accounted for over 70% of China's soybean imports in 2023, while U.S. exports dropped to 21% [31][33]. Group 6: Geopolitical Considerations - Despite the limited production capacity, Russia's proximity to China makes it a strategic backup supplier, providing a "lifeline" in case of disruptions in supply from the Americas [36][38]. - China's efforts to increase domestic soybean production and support Russian exports are part of a broader strategy to ensure food security and reduce dependency on foreign sources [39][41].