离岸人民币破7，为何对美元升值对欧元却贬值？背后藏着大国战略

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened, influenced by both external factors such as the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts and internal factors like China's robust export performance, leading to a historical trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion this year [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation against the USD is beneficial for imports, reducing costs for energy and raw materials, but it negatively impacts export competitiveness [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate management has evolved to be more sophisticated, transitioning from a single peg to the USD to a basket of currencies, resulting in differentiated performance against various currencies [3][5]. - The RMB has appreciated by 4% against the USD while depreciating by 8% against the Euro, indicating a strategic approach to enhance export competitiveness in Europe [3][5]. Group 2: Trade Relationships - China's largest trading partner has shifted from the US to ASEAN, with the EU now second and the US in third place, allowing for increased export competitiveness against European products [3]. - The trade surplus with the EU has expanded to $38.4 billion in the first 11 months of the year, facilitated by the RMB's depreciation against the Euro [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Influence - The People's Bank of China has significant control over the exchange rate, allowing for intervention based on trade surpluses and foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3 trillion [5]. - The RMB's appreciation against the USD is strategically beneficial as the US remains heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, particularly for high-end products, while the depreciation against the Euro aids in competing with European manufacturers [5]. Group 4: Impact on A-Share Market - The influence of RMB appreciation on the A-share market is limited, as foreign investment constitutes a small portion of the market, and the primary determinants are national policies and company fundamentals [7].