贵金属“牛市”能否跨年

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented bull market in 2025, with gold prices rising over 70% and silver soaring more than 170%, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances [1][4][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In early 2025, gold fluctuated between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, while silver ranged from $28 to $32 per ounce [3]. - By mid-March, gold broke the $3,000 per ounce mark, achieving a 19.01% increase in Q1 [3]. - In Q2, platinum surged by 36.58%, while gold and silver had modest gains [3]. - By September, gold reached $3,857 per ounce, marking an 11.92% increase for the month, the highest monthly gain of the year [3]. - In Q4, silver rose by 70.04%, with platinum and palladium increasing over 50%, and gold up by 17.49% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the bull market was the expectation of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, alongside economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties [4][8]. - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of the year, with a record monthly increase of 53 tons in October [7]. - The shift in market dynamics has moved from traditional drivers like dollar weakness to a more complex interplay of factors including central bank behavior and supply-demand structures [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the market is expected to see structural differentiation rather than a uniform rise, with gold supported by ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [9][10]. - Silver and platinum may exhibit stronger price elasticity due to persistent supply shortages, despite some anticipated new production [9][10]. - The overall precious metals market is likely to enter a phase of high volatility and differentiation among various metals, with gold expected to remain stable but with limited upside compared to 2025 [10].