发动消费引擎 释放内需潜力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consumption is the main engine of economic growth and a barometer of people's well-being, with significant policies implemented to boost consumption in 2025, resulting in a 4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods in the first 11 months, surpassing both the previous year's growth and the annual growth rate [1] - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods, has been a key focus of macroeconomic policy this year, with substantial increases in funding for these initiatives, including 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement and 200 billion yuan for equipment updates [2] - The government is actively working to eliminate restrictive measures in the consumption sector, with multiple high-level meetings emphasizing the need to stimulate consumption potential and remove unreasonable restrictions on consumption, particularly in the automotive and housing sectors [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, experts suggest that the focus of consumption policies should shift from demand-side stimulation to a coordinated reform of both supply and demand, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [4] - The research department of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights the importance of increasing the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with specific targets set for 2027, including three trillion-yuan-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption hotspots [5] - The chief economist at招商基金 predicts a moderate recovery in consumption in 2026, with continued support for the "Two New" policy and an emphasis on service consumption, particularly in sectors like healthcare and elderly care, which are expected to be the main focus of policy support [6]