南美刮起去美元化浪潮，这国打响第一枪，IMF：美元占比跌破六成

Core Viewpoint - The Uruguayan Central Bank's president, Guillermo Tolosa, has declared that the country needs to "wean off" the US dollar, describing it as a "pacifier" for the economy, and stated that investing in dollars is akin to gambling in a casino. He highlighted that the real purchasing power of dollar accounts in Uruguay has halved over the past 20 years [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Measures and Policies - The Uruguayan Central Bank announced measures to increase the use of the national currency, the peso, including raising capital requirements for dollar loans and removing some reserve requirements for peso deposits [3]. - The Central Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points was influenced by a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 4.1% in November, below the official target of 4.5% [5]. - The Central Bank's de-dollarization efforts reflect a broader international discussion about the future status of the dollar, as its share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from approximately 71% at the beginning of the century to around 59% last year [5]. Group 2: Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by various factors, including increased competition from other currencies, geopolitical tensions, and the growing US fiscal deficit, which has weakened the dollar's appeal [7]. - As of mid-2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [7]. - The role of gold in global reserves has increased, with its share rising to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40% [9]. Group 3: Regional Responses and Trends - In Latin America, Uruguay's de-dollarization efforts contrast sharply with Argentina, where President Milei is promoting labor reforms that allow workers to choose their salary currency, including the possibility of fully adopting the dollar [9][10]. - Brazil's President Lula has called for trade settlements in a common currency between Brazil and Argentina, aiming to reduce reliance on the dollar [10][12]. - The use of local currencies in international trade is increasing, with countries like India and Argentina adopting their currencies for trade settlements, indicating a shift away from the dollar [12]. Group 4: Challenges in Changing Currency Habits - Changing the long-standing habit of dollar usage among the Uruguayan population is a significant challenge, as trust in currency takes time to build but can be destroyed quickly [13]. - The Central Bank emphasizes that policy guidance and sustained economic stability are essential for altering public reliance on the dollar [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to continue its downward trend, with predictions indicating a potential decline of about 3% by the end of 2026 [15]. - Analysts suggest that the risks facing the dollar currently outweigh the factors supporting its strength, indicating that the long-standing bull market for the dollar may be nearing its end [15].