长安期货：钢材价格下行空间有限，双焦价格或稳中有升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] Group 2 - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [2] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which impacts overall steel demand [2] - Despite the pressure on demand, steel mill profits are expected to recover significantly in 2025 due to raw material cost reductions [2] - The demand structure for steel is expected to continue adjusting in 2026, with limited incremental demand from real estate policies focused on "digesting stock" and building "good houses" [2] - Manufacturing and exports are anticipated to support steel demand, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a strong manufacturing nation [2] - Although steel demand remains in a downward trend, the space for further decline is limited [2] Group 3 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with both coking enterprises and steel mills maintaining low inventory strategies [3] - Domestic coal prices have shown a downward trend, with a significant decrease in coking coal imports, which fell by 4.8% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing profound changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption [3] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to experience a "tight balance" in supply and demand, with prices likely to show strong fluctuations due to policy support and supply contraction [3] - The profitability of coking enterprises is constrained by excess capacity and limited bargaining power, leading to ongoing profit competition among steel enterprises [3]