“涨声雷动” 警惕“不按剧本”演 | 破译金属新主线

Core Viewpoint - The surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand, with significant increases in copper, gold, silver, and other metals observed as the year ends [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Price Increases - The expectation of a weaker dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and a shift from balance sheet reduction to asset purchases, which could lead to increased liquidity in emerging markets and commodity markets [2]. - Improved demand expectations are linked to central banks and Wall Street investors increasing their purchases of gold, driving its price higher [2]. - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both an investment and an industrial metal, with demand rising from sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are experiencing high growth [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Metal Demand Drivers - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational infrastructure, with projections indicating that data centers will need large quantities of copper [3]. - Policies in China, such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," are expected to boost copper demand by supporting durable consumer goods and major engineering projects [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is benefiting from the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the U.S. and EU, where stable power supply and electric vehicle adoption are driving the need for lithium batteries [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - Supply disruptions are contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain metals like silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]. - Potential tariffs on non-ferrous metals proposed by the U.S. could lead to increased prices, prompting suppliers to stockpile metals like copper and silver in anticipation of price hikes [6].