Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-12-28 23:33Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the global tire industry is facing cost pressures due to trade changes in the U.S. and Europe, which could lead to a consumption downgrade trend in local markets, creating a demand for high-cost-performance products [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand structure shows significant room for domestic tire companies to replace foreign brands, with unknown overseas tire companies holding nearly 50% market share in lower-tier markets [2]. - The mid-term outlook suggests that domestic tire companies are expected to gradually replace 1/2 tier well-known brands due to improved brand strength and high-end product offerings starting in 2026 [2]. - The performance of semi-steel tires is strong, with a gross margin close to 30%, indicating a high value-added consumer product [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - From 2026, leading domestic tire companies will implement a global scattered production layout, allowing them to switch production bases in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas to avoid trade barriers [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the performance of leading domestic tire companies will see a significant increase in both volume and profit due to this strategic expansion [1][4]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Perspectives - In the short term, the focus should be on tracking production capacity utilization and cost factors, including trade policies, raw material prices, shipping costs, and exchange rates [3]. - The long-term perspective indicates a favorable market structure with substantial replacement potential, as domestic tire companies currently hold only 30% market share domestically and 20% internationally [2]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that after the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese tires captured over 20% of the U.S. market due to their cost-performance advantage, highlighting the potential for similar trends following current trade changes [3]. - The report predicts that by 2026, domestic tire companies will significantly enhance their market presence in high-end segments, potentially raising the valuation multiples from PE 10 to 20x [4][5].