华泰瑞思：财政能否助力“开门红”？

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data has weakened due to multiple disturbances, correlating with the marginal slowdown in broad fiscal spending after September, leading to a widening gap between domestic demand growth and fiscal net financing [1] Group 1: Fiscal Support for Economic Growth - The seasonal pattern of fiscal spending since 2022 shows a concentration of efforts at the beginning and end of the year, with the first quarter exhibiting the highest compound growth rate [1] - The necessity for continued fiscal support to ensure a "good start" in the upcoming year is emphasized, especially given the marginal slowdown in fiscal efforts in the latter half of this year [1] Group 2: Financial Reserves for "Good Start" - Fiscal reserves for supporting next year's economic growth have been established, with a significant increase in fiscal surplus since September, indicating a widening gap between fiscal deficit and financing scale [2] - Approximately 1.4 trillion yuan of bond funds have not yet been utilized for actual expenditures, compared to 800 billion and 600 billion yuan in the same period of the previous years [2] Group 3: Focus of Fiscal Spending - Key areas for fiscal policy support include "two重" projects, urban renewal, stabilizing consumption, stabilizing real estate, and building a modern industrial system [3] - The acceleration of special bond project preparations and the potential for significant project investment demand to be released in the first quarter of next year are highlighted [3] Group 4: Monitoring Fiscal Spending Strength - High-frequency indicators such as government bond issuance progress, project commencement, monthly fiscal spending, and changes in fiscal deposits will be tracked to observe fiscal spending strength [4] - The importance of fiscal revenue as the primary source of funding for fiscal spending is noted, with corporate profits and real estate market stabilization being critical variables for fiscal funding assurance [4]