Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has sparked market interest, but there is a divergence in opinions regarding the future strength of the RMB, with expectations of two-way fluctuations becoming the norm [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated nearly 1.7% against the USD since mid-October, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1]. - Despite the typical year-end peak in currency settlement, the latest data shows that the foreign exchange market in China remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales, indicating that the demand for currency settlement may not remain high [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced not only by domestic supply and demand but also by the trends in the USD index, with potential downward pressure on the USD expected to ease in the coming months [2]. - The CFETS RMB index has remained relatively stable over the past two months, indicating that while the RMB has appreciated, it is still maintaining a reasonable equilibrium level [2]. - The central bank is likely to take measures to prevent unilateral expectations and self-reinforcing "herd effects" in the exchange rate market, especially if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2].
时报观察丨汇率没有单边走势 双向波动是常态
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-29 00:41