高盛：2026年黄金将问鼎“大宗商品之首”，看涨至4900美元

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that gold will be the best investment choice in the commodity sector for the coming year, with prices potentially exceeding $4,900 per ounce if private investors diversify their assets like central banks [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Outlook - The Bloomberg Commodity Index achieved a strong total return of 15% in 2025, driven by robust returns in industrial and precious metals, benefiting from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Goldman Sachs' macroeconomic baseline forecast includes solid global GDP growth and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which is expected to support strong commodity returns [1] Group 2: Central Bank Demand for Gold - Central bank gold purchases are expected to remain strong in 2026, averaging 70 tons per month, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to the predicted price increase [2] - The freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 marked a significant turning point for emerging market reserve management regarding geopolitical risks [2] - Emerging market central banks' gold reserves are estimated to be relatively low compared to global peers, especially considering China's ambitions for renminbi internationalization [2] Group 3: Private Investor Trends - If the trend of diversification extends to private investors, there could be upward price risks for gold, as this has led to competition for bullion between investors and central banks [4] - Gold ETFs currently account for only 0.17% of U.S. private financial portfolios, down 6 basis points from their peak in 2012 [4] - An increase of 1 basis point in gold's share within U.S. financial portfolios, driven by investor purchases, could lead to a price increase of 1.4% [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Supply Risks - Commodities provide insurance value in the current geopolitical environment, with gold being the most favored long position [7] - The geographic concentration of commodity supply, along with heightened geopolitical tensions and competition in trade and technology, increases the risk of supply disruptions [7] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that gold prices will dip to $4,200 per ounce in Q1 2026, then rebound to over $4,400 in Q2, reach around $4,630 in Q3, and potentially rise to $4,900 by the end of Q4 [7]