广发证券:首予老铺黄金“买入”评级 合理价值775.64港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-29 01:27

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is undergoing a transformative change, with ancient gold becoming a significant carrier of high-end consumption due to craftsmanship iteration and rising gold prices [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.8 billion, 6.89 billion, and 8.71 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - A price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026 is suggested, leading to a reasonable value of 775.64 HKD per share [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company differentiates itself in the high-end gold market through three core elements: product, channel, and brand [2] - On the product side, the company employs a fixed pricing strategy with significantly higher average transaction prices and gross margins compared to peers, continuously launching differentiated designs that lead the market [2] - The company operates a fully direct sales model, creating an immersive shopping experience, with store locations concentrated in key business districts of first-tier and new first-tier cities, leading in same-store sales growth and average store efficiency [2] - The brand strategy focuses on cultural storytelling and membership services, consistently attracting high-net-worth individuals [2] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The company is actively upgrading its core domestic stores, enhancing store locations and operational space, which drives single-store performance [3] - There is significant potential for domestic and international store expansion, with an estimated 40 additional stores available for development in Asia, benchmarking against brands like Bulgari, Cartier, Tiffany, and Van Cleef & Arpels [3]