Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-29 01:39Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant rise, driven by positive policy signals and market dynamics, despite facing challenges in the near term due to subsidy reductions and seasonal pressures [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xpeng Motors (09868) increased by 6.18%, reaching HKD 80.75 - Leap Motor (09863) rose by 5.33%, reaching HKD 52.6 - BYD (002594) shares climbed by 4.75%, priced at HKD 98.05 - Geely Automobile (00175) saw a 4.79% increase, trading at HKD 17.71 [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting enterprises for vehicle replacement programs [1] - Reports indicate that national subsidies will continue until 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy vehicles and increasing the pure electric range requirements for hybrid models [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The absence of tail effects from the withdrawal of replacement subsidies, combined with the gradual reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting in 2026, is expected to increase pressure on the automotive market in Q1 2026 [1] - Positive signals from the policy front are ongoing, with the National Market Supervision Administration releasing compliance guidelines for automotive pricing behavior, leading to a more stable competitive environment as companies like BYD and Xpeng respond positively [1] - Some cities have begun deploying new national subsidy-related work, suggesting that the industry may soon see the implementation of detailed policies and supportive measures, highlighting the bottom-line value of leading automotive companies and the potential for policy-driven market improvements [1]