美联储新主席5月上任“利好出尽”？野村：明年7-11月的美国市场“需要特别警惕”

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities warns that the U.S. market may face significant challenges in the coming months as the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office in May 2024, leading to potential investor sell-offs of dollar assets and pressure on U.S. equity and bond markets in the second half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Risks and Predictions - Nomura strategist Naka Matsuzawa indicates that while the new Chairman is expected to lead a rate cut in June, subsequent policy paths are uncertain, with potential strong opposition from the FOMC against further cuts due to signs of economic recovery [1][2]. - The period from July to November 2024 is predicted to be a "high-risk" phase for the market, where a policy deadlock between the Fed and the Trump administration could catalyze sell-offs in U.S. stocks and bonds, as well as a weakening dollar [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Leadership Concerns - Historical analysis shows that previous transitions of Federal Reserve Chairpersons have often led to market volatility, with the 1987 "Black Monday" being a notable example shortly after Alan Greenspan took office [3]. - There are concerns that the new Chairman may be pressured to align with the Trump administration's re-inflation policies, which could lead to increased market volatility if perceived as too dovish or compromising [3]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Trends - From a macro asset allocation perspective, Nomura anticipates a significant global economic recovery by 2026, shifting market drivers from "excess liquidity" to "corporate earnings," which may diminish the relative advantage of U.S. assets [4]. - As other major economies potentially halt rate cuts or begin raising rates, the dollar is expected to weaken, particularly during sensitive periods in the second half of the year, leading to a reassessment of U.S. asset dominance and potential capital outflows [4].