人民币“破7”后，行业如何配置？

Group 1 - Recent acceleration in RMB appreciation reflects a weaker USD and year-end "settlement tide," leading to a consensus expectation for RMB strengthening [1][5][12] - The RMB has appreciated significantly against non-USD currencies, with a 2.45% decline in USD/RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year, while the USD index fell by 10.79% [4][5] - The year-end settlement period traditionally sees strong demand for RMB as export companies convert foreign earnings, further supporting RMB appreciation [5][11] Group 2 - Short-term support for RMB appreciation is expected from the delayed effects of corporate settlement demand, with historical data indicating a 3-6 month lag [9][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to provide ample time for settlement demand to be released, potentially boosting RMB strength in January [11][12] - The reversal of previous pressures on RMB, such as domestic deflation and declining asset returns, is expected to strengthen the RMB's upward momentum in the medium to long term [8][19][56] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles, both A-shares and H-shares generally performed well, with a strong negative correlation to the USD/RMB exchange rate [30][34] - The four previous RMB appreciation cycles since 2016 have seen A-shares rise, while H-shares have shown varying performance based on external liquidity sensitivity [30][34][56] - The primary drivers of stock performance during these cycles include domestic economic strength and external monetary easing [30][56] Group 4 - RMB appreciation impacts industry configuration through four main channels: reducing import costs, lowering foreign debt costs, enhancing domestic purchasing power, and attracting foreign capital back to Chinese assets [57][58] - Industries with high import dependency, such as coal, steel, and certain chemicals, are expected to benefit from reduced costs due to RMB appreciation [36][57] - Sectors with significant foreign currency liabilities, like construction and logistics, will see lower debt servicing costs, enhancing profitability [42][57] Group 5 - The RMB's strengthening is projected to enhance domestic consumption, particularly in sectors like cross-border e-commerce, luxury goods, and hospitality [45][48][57] - The shift in foreign capital preferences towards growth sectors such as electronics, automotive, and machinery is expected to continue, reinforcing the current market trends [51][52] - The anticipated capital inflow due to RMB appreciation could lead to a significant revaluation of Chinese assets, estimated at around $1.2 trillion [22][56]