成交额超2000万元，国开债券ETF(159651)近5个交易日净流入2264.60万元

Group 1 - The central viewpoint indicates that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in the near term, although the likelihood may increase after the Spring Festival [1] - Short-term government bond yields are anticipated to have limited downward space, while the overnight rate is expected to slightly rebound, and the 7-day funding rate is likely to remain stable [1] - Long-term interest rates may have opportunities for decline in January if economic performance is strong and short-term rates stabilize at low levels; however, if equity markets perform well, long-term rates may rise above 1.9% [1][2] Group 2 - In January, the bond market strategy should focus on four key points: limited downward space for short-term government bond yields, potential opportunities in short-term credit and medium-term government bonds, and the capital gain value of long-term active bonds being weak [2] - The high spread between new and old long-term bonds suggests that holding higher-yield long-term bonds may be beneficial if short-term fluctuations are not a concern [2] - The supply of local government bonds is significant, and attention should be given to the spread between local and national bonds before making investment decisions [2] Group 3 - As of December 26, 2025, the National Development Bank bond ETF (159651) showed a slight increase of 0.02%, with a latest price of 106.85 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.11% [3] - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.12% over the past six months, which is the smallest among comparable funds, indicating strong performance in terms of risk management [3] - The management fee of the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the past two months is 0.007%, which is the highest precision among comparable funds [4]