广州期货：黄金市场受地缘风险和货币宽松支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and geopolitical tensions on market trends, particularly in gold prices and interest rate expectations [1][2][3]. Group 2 - On December 27, the Shanghai Gold Futures rose by 0.17% to 1018.10 yuan per gram, with a weekly increase of 3.68%. COMEX gold price increased by 3.98% to 4562 USD per ounce [1]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 214,000, lower than expected, indicating a stronger labor market. However, the consumer confidence index fell to 89.1, below previous values [1]. - The market anticipates two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with probabilities of 61.0% for a 25 basis point cut by March and 67.7% for a 50 basis point cut by July [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at possible significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework, including a shift to an inflation range target and the potential cancellation of the interest rate dot plot [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, are increasing risk aversion in the market, supporting higher gold prices amid expectations of continued monetary easing from the Fed [3].