机构展望2026年香港楼市：楼价最高再涨15%

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential property market has reached a four-year high in transactions, driven by a low interest environment and active stock market, with property prices reversing a three-year decline and increasing nearly 4%. Forecasts for 2026 suggest property prices may rise between 5% to 15% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Predictions by Real Estate Firms - JLL expresses confidence that property prices have bottomed out this year, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, predicting a 5% increase in small to medium-sized residential prices and a similar rise in medium-sized rental prices. Luxury property prices are expected to remain stable, with rental increases of 0-5% anticipated. New developments and younger properties are expected to see more significant price increases [1]. - CBRE forecasts that residential transaction volumes next year will be similar to this year's levels, with property price increases capped at 5%. Rental growth is expected to slow slightly to around 3% [1]. - Knight Frank predicts luxury property prices will rise by 3-5%, while general residential prices are expected to increase by 5-8%, with both general and luxury rental prices rising by 3-5% [1]. - Savills anticipates a continued upward trend in the residential market next year, with price increases expected to be more pronounced, estimated at around 3-5% [1]. - Hong Kong Property anticipates further increases in both primary and secondary market transactions and prices next year, driven by sustained demand for self-use, rental, and short-term investment, with optimistic scenarios suggesting price increases of 10-15% [1]. Group 2: Additional Insights - Citi predicts that with continuous interest rate cuts in the U.S., alongside a notable recovery in rental prices and improved supply-demand dynamics, Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise by 5% next year [2].