2025贵金属“狂飙”背后：一场逻辑重构的牛市

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented rally in 2025, with gold rising by 72.72%, silver soaring over 170%, and platinum and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by a clear underlying logic [1] Group 1: Market Performance - At the beginning of 2025, gold was trading between $2600 and $3000 per ounce, while silver fluctuated between $28 and $32 [2] - In March, gold broke the $3000 mark with a quarterly increase of 19%, followed by platinum's significant rise of 36.58% in Q2 [2] - The peak occurred in September when gold surged by 11.92% in one month, reaching $3857, and silver saw a quarterly increase of over 29% [2] - By the end of December, silver's quarterly increase reached 70%, with platinum and palladium both rising over 50%, and gold increasing by 17.49% [2] - On December 24, all four precious metals hit historical highs, with gold briefly touching $4549.96 and silver surpassing $79 [2] Group 2: Upward Logic - Traditionally, precious metal prices rise due to a combination of a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates; however, in 2025, the driving forces shifted fundamentally [3] - Notably, there were instances of rising U.S. Treasury yields coinciding with increasing gold prices, indicating a shift in gold pricing logic from being solely interest rate-sensitive to a reassessment of the monetary credit system [3] Group 3: 2026 Outlook - Despite long-term support factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the market has entered a new phase [4] - Current prices reflect favorable conditions, leading to a short-term overvaluation; structural market differentiation is expected in 2026 [4] - Gold is likely to be supported by central bank holdings, making it "hard to drop," but its growth may slow; silver may face challenges due to slowing photovoltaic demand, while platinum group metals could emerge as the biggest winners due to unique supply-demand dynamics in the new energy sector [4] Group 4: Supporting Factors - Central banks have normalized gold purchases, with global net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, and a record monthly increase of 53 tons in October [5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened Middle Eastern tensions, have increased safe-haven demand, while persistent U.S. inflation and high fiscal deficits have weakened dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset" [5] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with silver facing shortages despite new production capacity, and platinum supply constrained by South Africa's energy crisis, while industrial demand for hydrogen fuel cells is surging [5]