美联储降息≠人民币升值≠出口承压——汇率升值叙事的三重纠偏

Group 1 - The core narrative regarding the recent appreciation of the RMB is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker dollar, which in turn may harm China's export competitiveness [3][16] - The logic of this narrative is questioned, as a Fed rate cut does not necessarily equate to a weaker dollar, and RMB appreciation does not automatically imply a loss of export competitiveness [1][4] - The RMB exchange rate is currently viewed as fairly valued, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation issues, supported by internal resilience in exports and policy measures [9][42] Group 2 - The narrative surrounding the RMB's appreciation can be divided into two segments: the first driven by policy support from mid-April to November, and the second driven by market supply and demand from late November to the present [8][34] - In the first segment, the RMB middle rate appreciated from approximately 7.21 to around 7.08, with a monthly average appreciation of about 186 basis points [32] - In the second segment, the RMB middle rate further appreciated to just above 7.04, with a notable increase of over 450 basis points in a month, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven appreciation [34][35] Group 3 - Future RMB exchange rate trends will depend on several factors, including valuation factors, policy direction, internal supply and demand, and external responses [42][58] - The valuation perspective indicates that the RMB is not significantly overvalued or undervalued, remaining within a reasonable pricing range [42][43] - The policy direction has shifted from supporting a stable appreciation to preventing excessive appreciation volatility, reflecting a focus on maintaining stability rather than encouraging a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend [45][47] Group 4 - The internal supply and demand dynamics are crucial, with the flow logic indicating that net settlement depends on trade surplus and corporate settlement intentions, while the stock logic highlights the potential release of accumulated foreign exchange positions [51][53] - The accumulated foreign exchange positions, estimated to be between $737 billion and $1.1 trillion, could significantly impact net settlement if released [53][54] - The external response, particularly the behavior of the US dollar, is also a key factor, with expectations that the dollar may not experience sustained weakness due to underlying economic conditions [58][62]