王永春：银发经济2035年将达19万亿，但要先把“底盘”打牢

Core Viewpoint - The silver economy is positioned as a core sector of the service industry, aiming to meet the diverse needs of the elderly through market mechanisms during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, creating a closed loop of "improving people's livelihood - releasing consumption - economic growth" [2][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of October 2025, there are over 17 million enterprises in the elderly care industry, employing more than 49 million people, with a conservative estimate of total employment exceeding 100 million [3]. - The elderly care industry has established 470,000 service facilities, creating a "quarter-hour elderly care service circle" that covers urban and rural areas [3]. - The elderly care technology and smart elderly care service sector comprises over 5.43 million enterprises, accounting for 30.66% of the overall elderly care industry, with smart elderly care services growing at a rate of 22% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Development Goals - The basic elderly care service supply is prioritized as the foundation for expanding the silver economy, focusing on inclusivity and security [4]. - The central government has set a goal to enhance basic elderly care services, particularly for disabled elderly individuals, by 2029 [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Shortcomings - There is a significant care gap for approximately 45 million disabled and cognitively impaired elderly individuals, with only 500,000 certified caregivers available, indicating a shortfall of 550,000 [6]. - The elderly population aged 60 and above in rural areas exceeds 23%, highlighting the need for targeted services for rural elderly and those in difficult circumstances [6]. Group 4: Strategic Focus Areas - The silver economy must focus on three rigid shortcomings: addressing special groups, enhancing service networks, and building professional capabilities [6][7]. - The demand for caregivers and rehabilitation therapists is increasing, with job postings in these areas growing by 36.1% and 25.7% year-on-year, respectively [7]. Group 5: Development Principles - The development of the silver economy should adhere to three principles: not deviating from "elderly-friendly needs," not deviating from "collaborative integration," and not deviating from "China's national conditions" [8][9]. - The health management elderly care service market is projected to reach between 1.4 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors [8].