84%中国人误认的“国货”利润骤降，日本饮料巨头的中国光环正在褪色

Core Insights - Suntory, a Japanese beverage giant, is facing unprecedented challenges in the Chinese market, with a 9.2% year-on-year decline in operating profit for Q3 2025, despite revenue reaching 1,278.1 billion yen [1][2] - The company's market share in the sugar-free tea segment has been significantly eroded, with competitors like Nongfu Spring capturing over 70% of the market, while Suntory's share has dropped to 8.7% [1][3] Financial Performance - Suntory's operating profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 126.5 billion yen, down 9.2% year-on-year, with Q3 profit at 91.7 billion yen, reflecting a 9.9% decline [2] - The only region showing growth in both revenue and profit is Europe, while the Asia-Pacific region, including China, has seen double-digit profit declines [2] Market Dynamics - The sugar-free tea market is experiencing a slowdown, with sales growth dropping from over 127% in early 2023 to just 8.09% by Q4 2024 [2][8] - Suntory's market share in the sugar-free tea segment fell from 21.12% in 2024 to 12.04% in 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend [2] Competitive Landscape - Nongfu Spring's market share in the sugar-free tea segment increased by 10.94 percentage points to 79.36% by June 2025, while Suntory's share decreased by 6.96 percentage points [3] - Local brands have established extensive distribution networks, posing challenges for Suntory, which relies heavily on convenience stores and large supermarkets [4] Channel Strategy - Suntory has recognized the need for channel adjustments and is restructuring its sales regions to better align with market characteristics [5] - The company is facing limitations in penetrating lower-tier cities, where local brands have a stronger presence [4] Product Innovation - Suntory has been slow in product innovation, focusing primarily on oolong tea, while competitors have diversified their offerings across various tea types [6] - In 2025, Suntory announced nearly 10 new products, including new flavors and a new brand focused on differentiated sugar-free tea [6][7] Consumer Trends - The sugar-free tea market is shifting from a growth phase to a competitive phase, with increasing market concentration among leading brands [8] - Consumer preferences are evolving, with a growing demand for products that provide emotional value rather than just hydration [8] Future Outlook - Suntory remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the sugar-free tea market in China, driven by a trend towards healthier lifestyles [9] - The company is aware that it needs to undergo significant transformation, not just in product innovation but also in channel penetration and brand communication [9]