十年国债ETF（511260）近20日净流入超10亿元，强预期弱现实助推债市利好

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ten-year treasury ETF (511260) has seen a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in the past 20 days, driven by strong expectations but weak realities, which supports the bond market [1] - The fundamental economic performance remains at a low level, with insufficient effective demand putting pressure on the production side, despite strong market expectations for improvement [1] - Historical trends indicate that rising equity markets are typically associated with significant improvements in fundamentals, but since the onset of Trump's anti-globalization policies in 2025, downward pressure on fundamentals has persisted while equity market momentum remains strong [1] Group 2 - The ten-year treasury ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year treasury index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange, maintaining a constant duration [2] - Since its inception, the ten-year treasury ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 4.17%, a three-year return of 14.04%, a five-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% [2] - The fund has maintained positive annual returns for seven complete natural years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [2]