现货黄金跌破4500美元关口，白银日内暴跌近5%

Price Movement Core Reasons - Geopolitical risks have decreased as Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is "close to reaching an agreement," which weakened safe-haven sentiment and triggered long position sell-offs [3] - Insufficient liquidity and profit-taking were highlighted by UBS, warning that the current rally is driven by liquidity shortages and carries a risk of rapid decline; some investors opted to cash out at high levels before the Christmas holiday [3] - Technical breakdown signals were noted, with $4500 being a critical support level; breaking below this triggered programmatic selling, with short-term support shifting to the $4470-$4480 range [3] Market Reactions and Divergent Views - The bullish logic remains unchanged due to long-term support factors such as a 65.3% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 2026, global central bank gold purchases (net purchases of 902 tons in the first three quarters), and a restructuring of the dollar credit system [4] - Institutional target prices are high, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4900 and JPMorgan forecasting $5055, suggesting that the current pullback is an opportunity to buy [5] Cautionary Signals - Technical indicators are overbought, with RSI reaching 74-80; Citigroup warns of a potential short-term pullback to $4300-$4400 [6] - Historical lessons indicate that gold prices experienced two significant drops after reaching $4380 in October (a single-day drop of 6.3%), leading some investors to exit at $4500 [6] Impact on Ordinary Consumers - There is a contradiction in the consumer market, as domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1400 yuan per gram, but the buyback price is over 30% lower, leaving consumers in a "paper profit hard to realize" dilemma [6] - The wedding demand is shifting towards the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, where pricing by gram or rental services is being adopted to lower costs [7] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises against chasing prices; focus on support at $4480, with a breakdown indicating a target of $4430 [8] - Long-term strategy suggests a maximum allocation of 10% of liquid assets, with a preference for gold ETFs (considering fees) [8] Future Key Observation Points - Policy outlook includes the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting statements and non-farm payroll data; weak employment figures could strengthen rate cut expectations [9] - Geopolitical developments such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the potential escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts are critical [10] - Fund flows, including changes in global gold ETF holdings (with a net increase of $5.2 billion in December) and the sustainability of central bank gold purchases, are essential to monitor [11]