日本央行12月会议纪要认为“实际利率依然很低”，暗示更多加息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes indicate that several members believe the country's real interest rates remain at very low levels, suggesting that future interest rate hikes are likely to continue [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, during the meeting that concluded on December 19 [1] - Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in about six months, with most anticipating a terminal rate of 1.25% for the current rate hike cycle [1] - Former Executive Director Hideo Hayakawa stated that the Bank of Japan might raise rates to 1.50% before early 2027 [1] Group 2: Neutral Interest Rate - The meeting minutes clearly indicate that the policy rate has not yet reached a neutral level, with one member stating that there is still a considerable distance to the neutral rate [2] - The Bank of Japan's research suggests that the neutral interest rate is within a broad range of 1% to 2.5% [2] - Some members echoed the Governor's view on the difficulty of determining the neutral rate, advocating for significant flexibility in interpreting it [2] Group 3: Yen Depreciation Concerns - The minutes reveal that some members expressed concerns about the depreciation of the yen, which may have influenced the decision to raise rates on December 19 [3] - Prior to the meeting, the yen had weakened to its lowest level in about ten months, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar, a level that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities [3] - Despite the narrowing of the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential due to policy actions from both central banks, the yen remains weak, prompting Japanese authorities to issue verbal warnings to curb excessive market volatility [3]