莱坊：2026年香港楼价有望明显回暖 全年升幅或介于5%至8%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December to stimulate the economy, which may lead to a recovery in the Hong Kong property market after the Lunar New Year, with a potential price increase of 5% to 8% in 2026 [1] Group 1: Property Market Performance - The Hong Kong private residential property price index reached 297.3 points in November, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.92%, marking six consecutive months of growth, and a year-on-year increase of 1.99%; the cumulative increase for the first 11 months of the year is 2.8% [1] - The overall property market is expected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024, with both price and transaction volume increasing [1] - The adjustment of stamp duty is expected to help the transaction volume of lower-priced properties, but the most significant stimulus for the overall market comes from interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - Market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, but high inventory levels and the inability of Hibor to remain low are limiting significant reductions in mortgage rates [1] - The property market is anticipated to see a noticeable improvement in prices after the Lunar New Year, with a forecasted increase of about 3% in 2025 [1] - The Hong Kong government's talent programs are expected to slightly increase the labor force and high-income population, providing stable support for residential rental demand, with rental prices projected to rise by 3% to 5% in 2026 [1]