国信证券：维持餐饮板块“优于大市”评级 看好龙头公司穿越周期能力

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the chain restaurant sector, highlighting the investment value of strong operational restaurant leaders and innovative tea beverage companies that can ensure stable returns for franchisees despite growth pressures [1] Group 1: Restaurant Consumption Trends - Demand is weakly recovering while supply is clearing, leading to growth strategies from leading companies, with national restaurant revenue increasing by 3.3% year-on-year from January to November 2025, slower than the 4.1% growth in retail [2] - Structural growth in online channels is evident, with significant benefits for milk tea, coffee, and fast food during the 2025 instant retail competition, although brands are becoming more rational about their approach to delivery [2] - Brand building strategies are shifting from creating single-hit products to enhancing supply chain efficiency, with a focus on developing membership systems for private traffic conversion [2] Group 2: Market Performance Review - Leading coffee and tea brands such as Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and Luckin Coffee have seen stock price increases of 185.8%, 45.4%, and 39.2% respectively, driven by increased consumer frequency and high enthusiasm from franchisees [3] - Restaurant leaders show varied stock performance, with strong same-store data and rapid expansion like Guoquan leading to a 98% increase, while others like Guangzhou Restaurant and Green Tea Group saw more moderate increases of 11.8%, 9.2%, and 8.8% [3] Group 3: Sub-industry Analysis and Outlook - The ready-to-drink tea segment is benefiting from the current delivery subsidy war, with seven listed tea leaders seeing revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in H1 2025, accelerating from 22.5% and 15.0% in 2024 [4] - In contrast, listed restaurant leaders experienced a revenue increase of only 1.5% in H1 2025, slower than the industry growth of 4.3%, due to factors like price competition and policy disruptions, although net profit grew by 7.5% [4] Group 4: Investment Framework Update - Same-store revenue growth serves as a valuation anchor, reflecting existing store profitability and influencing future expansion [5] - Store expansion rates act as a valuation amplifier, with potential for dual growth in valuation and performance during upward trends [5] - New product development is essential for generating new momentum, requiring supportive incentive systems [5] - Historical premium valuations for leading brands are linked to growth certainty and competitive dynamics [5] - Investment recommendations include Haidilao, Yum China, Guoquan, Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and others, with a positive outlook on Meituan-W in the local service sector [5]