复旦碳价指数：2026年1月GEC价格指数全线上涨

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index results for January 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Summary - The expected buy price for CEA in January 2026 is 66.13 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.14 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 70.13 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 165.33, and the sell price index is 167.28, with a midpoint index of 166.34 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint of 77.84 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 131.56, and the sell price index is 146.52, with a midpoint index of 139.36 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in January 2026 is 66.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 77.60 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 72.00 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 12.54% to 166.92, and the sell price index increased by 11.81% to 186.67, with a midpoint index increase of 12.15% to 177.01 [2] GEC Price Index Summary - The price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 production is expected to be 5.93 CNY/unit, with a price index of 107.82. For distributed projects, the price is 5.61 CNY/unit (index 113.83), and for biomass power generation, the price is 4.6 CNY/unit (index 89.15). All three categories saw price increases exceeding 25%, with centralized projects showing the highest increase [3] National Carbon Market Activity - In December, the average closing price for CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, up approximately 3.27% from November's average of 59.87 CNY/ton. The carbon price showed a trend of stabilization followed by a significant rise, reaching above 70 CNY/ton after eight consecutive days of increases [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in December was 201.28 million tons, down 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons. Despite the decrease, the market remained active, with half of the trading days exceeding 2 million tons, peaking at 357.39 million tons on December 23 [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market in December showed varied trends, with the EU and Korean markets experiencing a recovery, while the UK market saw a significant decline. The EU's average daily trading volume increased by 2.19%, while the UK's dropped by 90.39% [5] - The EU carbon market's price rose from 96.24 USD/ton to 101.36 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 5.31%. The UK market's price increased from 75.01 USD/ton to 87.42 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 16.55%. In contrast, the Korean market's price fell from 7.35 USD/ton to 6.90 USD/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.12% [6]