瑞银报告：居民收入全面放缓

Group 1 - The core finding of UBS's survey of 3,000 Chinese consumers indicates a continued decline in consumer sentiment, primarily driven by falling incomes and asset values leading to a negative wealth effect [1][19] Group 2 - Household income is decreasing, with significant slowdowns in both wage and rental income growth, while investment income has seen a slight increase due to a bullish A-share market [2][20] - Consumers exhibit a pessimistic outlook on their income over the next 12 months, particularly regarding wages and rental income, which diminishes their expectations for future financial improvement [5][23] - The relationship between income decline and consumption is not linear; a decrease in income can lead to a disproportionately larger drop in consumption due to the multiplier effect [5][24] Group 3 - There is an increased willingness to save and a decreased willingness to consume, with savings and investment proportions rising while consumption proportions are falling [6][25] - Consumption trends show a clear divide, with high willingness to spend in essential sectors like education and healthcare, while discretionary spending in clothing and entertainment is declining [9][28] Group 4 - Government subsidies have had a limited impact on stimulating consumption, with monthly increases in spending being minimal, often just a few hundred yuan [12][31] - The effectiveness of subsidies is diminishing due to previous purchases made by willing consumers and tightening fiscal conditions leading to reduced subsidy amounts [12][31] Group 5 - Approximately half of those who sold their homes this year did so at a loss, as average national housing prices have reverted to levels seen in 2015-2016, affecting many recent buyers [15][34] - The expectation of future profits from real estate sales is higher among those who have not yet sold, indicating a tendency to overestimate the value of held assets [15][34] Group 6 - The decline in the real estate market has not redirected funds to other sectors as previously theorized; instead, it has negatively impacted various industries, leading to significant capital evaporation [18][37] - UBS predicts that without substantial stimulus policies, overall consumption growth in China will continue to slow, potentially stabilizing at a modest single-digit growth rate by 2026 [18][37] - For sustainable recovery in consumption, key factors include stabilizing employment, improving the social security system, and maintaining stable housing prices [18][37]