白银价格预测：突破动能与美联储流动性预期为白银2026年上探100美元创造条件

Core Viewpoint - Silver is poised to reach a target price of $100 by 2026 after breaking a 40-year consolidation pattern, driven by soaring industrial demand and the Federal Reserve's resumption of balance sheet expansion [1][21]. Group 1: Macro Forces Reshaping Silver Supply and Demand - China's silver outflow and global supply tightness are central to the current market dynamics, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories dropping to 715 tons, an 86% decline from the 2020 peak [1][4]. - Gold inventories have similarly decreased, falling 83% from their 2021 high to 519 tons, the lowest since December 2015, indicating severe shortages that are pushing precious metal prices higher [4]. - Despite rising silver prices, silver mine production remains flat, and new projects may not come online until 2027, contributing to ongoing supply constraints [4][7]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Future Growth - Demand for solar energy is expected to dominate in the coming years, with silver being essential for photovoltaic cells, requiring 10-20 grams per panel, leading to an anticipated consumption of over 200 million ounces annually by 2026 [7][8]. - Silver's unique conductivity makes it irreplaceable in electric vehicles, AI data centers, 5G infrastructure, and high-performance electronics, resulting in sticky demand that is largely price-insensitive [7]. - The medical technology sector is increasingly recognizing silver's antibacterial properties, further solidifying its role as a critical material rather than a luxury [7]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Dynamics - The Federal Reserve initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program in December 2025, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly, which is significantly higher than the previously expected $20-25 billion [8]. - This program is perceived as a form of "invisible quantitative easing," weakening the dollar and making silver more attractive as a store of value [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Signals - Silver's long-term chart indicates a significant breakout in 2025, surpassing the $50 resistance level that had held for over 40 years, suggesting a major shift in market behavior [10][11]. - The breakout from the cup-and-handle pattern could lead to a price increase of over 700%, with potential targets of $250 to $300, contingent on maintaining above the $30-$50 accumulation zone [10][11]. - The gold-silver ratio has broken its long-term uptrend, indicating that silver may outperform gold in the coming months and years [15][17]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook - Silver's breakout above $50 confirms a structural market shift supported by tightening physical supply, sustained industrial demand, and a favorable liquidity environment [21]. - As long as silver prices remain above the $30-$50 accumulation zone, the bullish outlook is intact, with a target of $100 by 2026, potentially opening the door to $250-$300 [21].