中金：铝价具备较大的补涨空间，推动铜铝比向中枢回归

Core Viewpoint - The supply constraints for aluminum in the coming year are expected to be strong, while long-term power bottlenecks will continue to limit capacity growth [1] Supply Side - The supply constraints for aluminum are confirmed for the next year, with ongoing power bottlenecks expected to restrict capacity expansion in the long term [1] Demand Side - Aluminum is experiencing weak negative feedback from downstream sectors due to its cost-effectiveness, and the substitution of aluminum for copper is gradually expanding into the air conditioning sector [1] - The concerns regarding demand overextension in the first half of the year have not materialized, driven by export demand for end products [1] Trade Dynamics - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to slightly increase the overall cost curve for the industry [1] Price Dynamics - Despite the current price increase being influenced by the financial premium of copper and the absorption effect of U.S. copper, the long-term co-integration relationship between copper and aluminum is not expected to easily break down, indicating significant potential for aluminum price increases and a return of the copper-aluminum ratio to its mean [1]