‌金银抢占头条后，铜或成2026年大黑马？

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing significant growth, driven by supply constraints, structural demand changes, and increased investment, with expectations for continued upward momentum into 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - Copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) have risen over 30% this year, reaching a five-month high of $5.90 per pound, while prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have surpassed $12,000 per ton, marking a 42% increase year-to-date [1]. - The copper-to-gold ratio has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the future [4]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is surging due to its critical role in artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicle (EV) industries, with AI infrastructure alone driving unprecedented demand levels [2]. - The energy transition is expected to double copper demand in the next 20 years, further solidifying its importance in the global economy [2]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply disruptions in major producing countries like Chile, Indonesia, and Peru are exacerbating market tensions, with forecasts indicating a potential global copper shortfall of 19 million pounds over the next 25 years if new mines are not developed [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - A long-term bullish trend for copper prices has been established, with prices rebounding from a summer low of $4.38 per pound to $5.91 per pound, supported by upward-sloping moving averages [5]. - Key resistance is identified at $5.99 per pound, with a target of $6.50 per pound, while psychological support is noted at $5.00 per pound [5].