STARTRADER：现货白银价格现大幅波动 日内振幅近9美元！

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions, weak dollar performance, and year-end liquidity issues [2][3][4]. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - On December 29, spot silver prices opened rapidly, breaking through $80 per ounce and peaking at $83 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 5% and a cumulative annual increase of $52 [1]. - Following this peak, silver prices quickly retreated, with a maximum drop of over $6 within 30 minutes, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9, ultimately settling at $76.5 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - Geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar have contributed to a strong demand for precious metals, maintaining their historical upward trend as year-end liquidity remains thin [3]. - Analysts from UBS have indicated that precious metal prices are currently at high levels, with increased short-term trading risks as investors may seek to take profits [3]. - The demand for safe-haven assets remains robust, supporting investment in gold and silver, while thin market liquidity amplifies price volatility [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A significant amount of liquid silver is stored in New York, awaiting results from a key U.S. Department of Commerce investigation regarding mineral imports, which could lead to adjustments in silver tariffs and other trade restrictions [3]. - Commodity analyst Manav Modi noted that the high volume of paper silver trading requires physical silver support, and current physical silver supply is insufficient to meet demand, impacting paper trading [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Silver prices are influenced by its industrial applications, including electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers, with demand in these sectors driving inventory depletion [4]. - A substantial influx of capital into the precious metals market has led to rising silver prices, supported by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4]. - The primary driver of recent silver price increases is a structural supply-demand imbalance, with physical silver in short supply prompting concentrated market purchases [4]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment - According to a Kitco News annual silver survey, a majority of retail traders are optimistic about silver's performance in 2026, with expectations for further price increases [4]. - Among surveyed retail traders, 57% anticipate silver prices will exceed $100 per ounce in 2026 [5]. - Additionally, 27% expect prices to range between $80 and $100 per ounce, while 11% predict a high of $60 to $80 per ounce [6]. - A small minority, 5%, believe prices will retreat to the $40 to $60 per ounce range seen in late 2025 [7].