五大私募，研判2026债市

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to experience low volatility and maintain a low interest rate environment, with a focus on short to medium-term bonds and convertible bonds as key investment opportunities [2][12][16]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to face challenges with long-term interest rates experiencing wide fluctuations and potential upward pressure due to supply and inflation expectations [2][12]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, supporting short-term assets and maintaining a stable performance in the bond market [2][12][16]. - The overall sentiment towards the bond market is optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in market conditions and structural opportunities arising from a low interest rate environment [3][15]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified for 2026 include high-grade short to medium-term credit bonds, structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, and Chinese dim sum bonds [2][16][20]. - Convertible bonds are highlighted as particularly attractive due to expected supply shortages and their dual nature of providing both bond-like security and equity-like upside [17][20]. - The focus on "fixed income plus" products is emphasized as a cost-effective strategy, leveraging ETFs to enhance returns while managing volatility [20][21]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 deviated from initial expectations, with higher volatility and a more pronounced differentiation in credit bonds than anticipated [7][8]. - Factors such as central bank policies, trade tensions, and unexpected regulatory changes contributed to the market's performance, leading to a reassessment of risk and return dynamics [4][8][12]. - The overall trajectory of the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with fluctuations driven by external economic conditions and policy responses [7][12].