人民币汇率创15个月新高，双向波动或是常态 | 画说热点

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has broken the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, marking a 15-month high. The onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, a new high since September 2024 [2] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate has entered a significant appreciation phase since late November 2025, driven by a weakening USD [2] - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corporation, the recent RMB appreciation is influenced by short-term positive factors and does not indicate the start of a new appreciation cycle [2] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the "7" mark in 2024, rather than showing a unilateral trend [2] Group 2 - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate will depend on three main factors: the relative strength of economic recovery in China and the US, trends in USD interest rates and exchange rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relations and domestic economic recovery [2] - The market should avoid excessive focus on specific exchange rate points and should not form linear expectations of unilateral appreciation or depreciation; instead, two-way fluctuations will become the norm [2]