Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-29 05:37Core Viewpoint - The AI sector remains active, with significant movements in related ETFs, particularly the AI-focused ETF from Huatai-PineBridge, which has seen a notable increase in trading volume and price [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The AI-focused ETF from Huatai-PineBridge (589560) surged by 2.05%, marking its sixth consecutive increase, with trading volume surpassing the previous day's total [1]. - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) rose by 1%, recovering from the previous day's decline [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Yuanjie Technology and Chip Origin, saw increases exceeding 7%, while others like Cambricon and SMIC also posted gains [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Semiconductor companies, including SMIC and World Advanced, have issued price increase notices to downstream clients, particularly for the 8-inch BCD process, with price hikes around 10% [6]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was launched on December 26, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy in hard technology, aiming to leverage significant fiscal resources to attract social capital [6]. - The recent National Financial Work Conference highlighted the importance of supporting technological innovation and the integration of industry innovation, aiming to cultivate new growth drivers by 2026 [6]. Group 3: Semiconductor Cycle - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upward cycle, driven by sustained demand for AI computing power, with high demand for GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging [7]. - The current cycle differs from previous ones, as AI has introduced a high-growth demand that raises the ceiling for industry needs and extends the duration of the cycle [7]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to transition from "repairing expectations" to "verifying prosperity," with a focus on AI core beneficiaries [7]. Group 4: AI Chip Market - The global AI computing chip market is projected to exceed $370 billion by 2026 and $460 billion by 2027, driven by significant capital expenditures from major tech companies [11]. - The shortage of chips continues, particularly in memory and optical chips, with supply-demand imbalances expected to persist into 2026 and beyond [16]. - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are making significant progress, with a notable increase in self-sufficiency expected by 2028 [17]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) is highlighted for its strong growth potential, with a projected net profit growth rate of 97% for the full year of 2025, significantly outpacing peers [25]. - The ETF's index focuses on high-tech upstream and midstream segments of the chip industry, indicating a higher "chip content" and growth elasticity compared to other indices [22][25]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF for exposure to the core segments of the semiconductor industry, benefiting from the ongoing AI-driven market dynamics [26][27].