张宇贤：内需导向有效对冲“五峰碰头”压力

Core Insights - The forum discussed the economic development blueprint for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China, focusing on key economic trends and policy directions [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will face multiple challenges due to the "Five Peaks" phenomenon, which includes population, real estate, heavy chemical industry, exports, and carbon peak, all reaching their peak stages [2] - The peak of the labor population occurred in 2010, with total labor force peaking in 2012 and total population peaking in 2021, leading to increased downward pressure on economic growth and potential changes in consumer behavior [2] - The real estate sector peaked in 2021, coinciding with population peaks, indicating a long-term trend towards a stable real estate market [2] - The heavy chemical industry has reached its production peak, necessitating a transformation towards new growth drivers [2] - Export contributions to national economic growth are expected to stabilize during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, making significant increases unlikely [2] - The carbon peak target set for 2030 imposes strict constraints on high-energy-consuming industries [2] Group 2: Development Dynamics - The simultaneous advancement of five trends—new industrialization, new urbanization, digitalization, green transformation, and population aging—will reshape the driving forces of economic development [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" represents a critical period for transitioning from old to new growth drivers, with the risk of falling into the "middle-income trap" as China aims to enter the ranks of high-income countries [3] - The shift from a high-growth economy to a stable growth model is inevitable, with economic growth expected to enter a phase below 5% [3] - Macro policies should focus on cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent sharp declines in growth and extend the growth plateau [3] Group 3: Strategic Policy Directions - The strategic focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" includes six key directions: entity-oriented, innovation-oriented, domestic demand-oriented, livelihood-oriented, green-oriented, and security-oriented [4] - The entity-oriented approach aims to strengthen the foundation of the real economy and promote high-quality development in manufacturing [4] - The innovation-oriented strategy emphasizes technological innovation and the cultivation of new productive forces [4] - The domestic demand-oriented approach seeks to mitigate external demand and investment pressures arising from the "Five Peaks" phenomenon [4] - The livelihood-oriented focus addresses issues related to population aging and social security improvements [4] - The green-oriented strategy supports low-carbon transitions and energy structure optimization to meet carbon peak targets [4] - The security-oriented approach is crucial for managing risks related to real estate and local government debt, ensuring the safety of industrial and supply chains [4]