Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-29 07:05Core Viewpoint - Palladium futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting the limit down at 494.10 yuan, a drop of 10.00% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures predicts that platinum and palladium may continue to operate in a volatile but strong manner in the future, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and market sentiment [2] - Ruida Futures warns of potential technical pullback pressure on platinum and palladium prices in the short term, noting a divergence in their price movements [2] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with other regional risk events, provides a continuous risk premium and uncertainty support for the entire precious metals sector, including platinum group metals [2] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Platinum prices are expected to find short-term support around 650 yuan per gram and resistance near 750 yuan per gram, while palladium support is noted at 500 yuan per gram and resistance at 600 yuan per gram [2] - Recent strong performance in platinum prices is driven by tight physical inventory and cross-regional arbitrage trading, while palladium has shown weakness due to concentrated demand in automotive catalysts and the rise of electric vehicles [2] - The disparity in domestic and international prices has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price volatility [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for platinum remains positive due to expectations of structural supply-demand deficits and expanding demand in the hydrogen economy, while palladium's market is shifting from a supply shortage to an oversupply situation [2] - Despite the weakening demand expectations for palladium, the prevailing sentiment driven by interest rate cuts may provide some support for its prices, making it a cost-effective choice at current low levels [2] - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high-level pullback, necessitating caution against technical correction pressures in the short term [2]