CBRE(US:CBRE) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-29 07:19Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market has shown signs of recovery, with property prices increasing by 2.8% and rents rising by 4.3% as of November, aligning with earlier predictions by CBRE [1] Group 1: Market Trends - After three consecutive years of decline, the Hong Kong residential market has reached a bottom and is experiencing a rebound, indicating renewed buyer confidence and strengthening fundamentals [1] - Property prices are expected to grow by approximately 3% to 5% in 2026, which is anticipated to be higher than the growth in 2025 [1] - Rental prices have reached an all-time high, with a projected growth rate of about 2% to 3% in 2026, which is lower than the expected increase in property prices [1] Group 2: Transaction Volume - CBRE forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for 2026, with total transactions expected to reach between 65,000 to 70,000 [1] - New home sales are projected to exceed 20,000 units, with an optimistic estimate of monthly sales surpassing 2,000 units [1] - Secondary market sales are expected to exceed 45,000 units, with monthly sales anticipated to exceed 3,500 units [1] Group 3: Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels are expected to decline from the peak in 2025, although the rate of decrease will be gradual [1] - Since April 2025, developers have maintained stable new home sales, averaging between 1,600 to 2,200 transactions per month [1] - By the end of 2026, inventory is projected to fall below 20,000 units, which may lead developers to reduce discount offers, thereby supporting continued price increases in the Hong Kong property market [1]